COVID-19 mortalities in England and Wales and the Peltzman offsetting effect

There are two approaches to measuring COVID-19 deaths – ‘COVID associated deaths’ and ‘excess deaths’. An excess framework is preferable, as there measurement error in COVID deaths, due issues relating imperfect information about that directly attributable COVID-19. The standard measure of (comparison a 5-year average) subject an omitted variables problem, it attributes the entirety variation mortality We propose method estimate refined England Wales addresses impact first blanket lockdown. Using counterfactual, we obtain stage deaths. In second stage, this decomposed into estimates Our results suggest: (i) mean weekly 63% deaths; (ii) positive net make case Peltzman offsetting effect, i.e. intended lockdown was more than offset by unintended impact.